Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
>= 100 95%Leader of 7 outcomes
>= 100 95%Forecasters
16
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJun 2, 24, 8:04 PM UTCJul 2, 27, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2033?
Manifold MarketsWill at least 12% of the population of Phoenix, Arizona die of extreme heat in the 2030s ?
Manifold MarketsWill 2,500+ people die of heat in Texas in a single week before 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill 10,000+ people die of heat in Texas in a single week before 2032?
Manifold MarketsWhere will it rain on Oct 28, 2026?
KalshiRules
This is an attempt to gauge whether Arizona will become uninhabitable due to climate change within the next decade, as predicted by this tweet:
- [tweet]Resolution will be based on my best estimate from credible reporting, Wikipedia articles, etc. If multiple credible sources are available, I'll resolve based on the geometric mean of available numbers.
- I'll add more answers if trading prices indicate that's appropriate.
- Ditto creating more comparable questions for different dates.
- See also: @/EvanDaniel/how-many-people-will-die-of-extreme
