Will 2,500+ people die of heat in Texas in a single week before 2032?
Health & MedicineOne-OffWeather5yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92.6%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleJun 26, 26, 11:38 AM UTCMar 31, 32, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
A bet on the tail risk of a sudden mass-casualty heat event in Texas.
- The most plausible path is a grid blackout during an extreme heat wave that knocks out air conditioning across a metro all at once, but the mechanism is not a resolution condition; any cause counts.
- This is the lower-threshold companion to an earlier 10,000-in-a-week market.
- The 10,000 bar is widely seen as too high to ever be provable, in part because Texas is known to badly undercount heat deaths on death certificates (see *Thousands of Heat-Related Deaths Go Uncounted in Texas*, deceleration.news).
- To get around that, this market explicitly counts modeled excess-mortality estimates, not just official death-certificate tallies. **Resolves YES** if both conditions hold for the same 7-day period ending before January 1, 2032: (1) a credible estimate attributes 2,500 or more deaths in Texas to heat, and (2) that window overlaps a verified extreme-heat event in the affected area, meaning a National Weather Service Extreme Heat Warning (formerly Excessive Heat Warning) or equivalent official heat designation was in effect.
- Otherwise NO.
