What are the current odds for Will Montenegro be a member of the European Union on 1st January 2028?

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 55.7% as of October 28, 2026.

Will Montenegro be a member of the European Union on 1st January 2028

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Yes 55.7%

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Updated 17 minutes ago

Sep 22, 24, 8:24 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 11:59 PM UTC

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Recently Montenegrin President Yakov Milatovic declared a political goal to be a member state by 2028

https://www.bta.bg/en/news/balkans/691717-president-radev-bulgaria-supports-montenegro-s-european-integration
Of the states negotiating for membership, Montenegro has been going on the longest.
It is the only state which has met the interim benchmarks for negotiation.
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2024/06/26/sixteenth-meeting-of-the-accession-conference-with-montenegro-at-ministerial-level/
This market will resolve YES if Montenegro is a member state of the EU on 1st Jan 2028.