Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 51.1%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleAug 15, 26, 2:50 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a drama film or series be released about Luigi Mangione by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Luigi Mangione get into a relationship/fall in love by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2027?
Manifold MarketsLuigi Mangione tried before 2027?
PolymarketLuigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?
PolymarketWill Luigi Mangione live until he is sentenced?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve "YES" if the New York state murder case against Luigi Mangione is dismissed before a jury is sworn or the court accepts a guilty plea pursuant to a qualifying plea deal.
- If a jury is sworn or the court accepts a guilty plea pursuant to a qualifying plea deal, the market will resolve "NO".
- A qualifying plea deal is any plea deal where Luigi Mangione agrees to plead guilty or no contest and doesn't reserve any unique appeal rights.
- The resolution of this market will not be affected by the dismissal of other charges against Luigi Mangione or appeals of the dismissal.
- Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself.
- While the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end-all, be-all, and all traders should look at the rules.
