Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 52.1%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleAug 15, 26, 2:50 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill I think jury nullification occured in the Luigi Mangione case?
Manifold MarketsWill James Comey’s criminal case be dismissed?
KalshiWill James Comey’s criminal case be dismissed?
LimitlessLuigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?
PolymarketLuigi Mangione tried before 2027?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve "YES" if the New York state murder case against Luigi Mangione is dismissed before a jury is sworn or the court accepts a guilty plea pursuant to a qualifying plea deal.
- If a jury is sworn or the court accepts a guilty plea pursuant to a qualifying plea deal, the market will resolve "NO".
- A qualifying plea deal is any plea deal where Luigi Mangione agrees to plead guilty or no contest and doesn't reserve any unique appeal rights.
- The resolution of this market will not be affected by the dismissal of other charges against Luigi Mangione or appeals of the dismissal.
- Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself.
- While the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end-all, be-all, and all traders should look at the rules.
Open markets
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+2.5pt65%
- Yes-2.5pt35%
- Total Vol
- $404K
- 24h Vol
- $31.8K
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 2026+0.1pt5%
- Total Vol
- $578.1K
- 24h Vol
- $16K
POLYMARKETNothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Yes+3.0pt84.2%
- No-3.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $785.6K
- 24h Vol
- $9.4K
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $11.4M
- 24h Vol
- $6.9K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 307%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill Trump be impeached and removed from office?
- No86%
- Yes-3.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $670.9K
- 24h Vol
- $4.2K
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
- What will Brett Kavanaugh say during his Notre Dame Lecture?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Maduro Prison Time?
- Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
- Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Andrew Tate released from custody by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Luigi Mangione's New York murder case be dismissed??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 52% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Luigi Mangione's New York murder case be dismissed? resolve?
- Will Luigi Mangione's New York murder case be dismissed? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will Luigi Mangione's New York murder case be dismissed? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve "YES" if the New York state murder case against Luigi Mangione is dismissed before a jury is sworn or the court accepts a guilty plea pursuant to a qualifying plea deal.