Will John Thune stop being Senate Republican Leader before 2030?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 60.2%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingNov 13, 24, 8:26 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
John Thune is the Republican Party's newly elected Senate Leader as of Nov 2024.
- As of his election, he is 63 years old.
- He succeeds Mitch McConnell, who is the longest-serving Senate leader in US history, leading the Republicans since 2007.
- This question resolves YES if John Thune ceases to be the Senate Republican Leader (for any reason, e.g. death, resignation, ousting) before the end of 2029.
- Otherwise, this question resolves NO on 1 Jan 2030.
- Note that the Senate Republican Leader can be either in the majority or in the minority.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will John Thune stop being Senate Republican Leader before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 60% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will John Thune stop being Senate Republican Leader before 2030? resolve?
- Will John Thune stop being Senate Republican Leader before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will John Thune stop being Senate Republican Leader before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: John Thune is the Republican Party's newly elected Senate Leader as of Nov 2024.