Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 94.6%
Forecasters
43
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingFeb 7, 24, 11:12 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
PolymarketRules
This market seeks to predict the survival of Joe Biden, the 46th President of the United States, up until the end of 31 December 2026.
- Given the natural concerns around the health and wellbeing of public figures, especially those of significant political stature and advanced age, this question is of public interest.
- Participants are encouraged to consider various factors that could influence the outcome, including but not limited to Biden's health records, actuarial life expectancy data for men in his age group, the stress associated with holding and having held high office, and any public information regarding his health and lifestyle.
- It is important to approach this market with sensitivity and respect for the subject and all individuals involved.
- Speculation should be grounded in publicly available information and presented in a manner that maintains the dignity of the individuals discussed.
- This market does not endorse or encourage speculation that is invasive or disrespectful.