Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 95%
Forecasters
59
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Feb 7, 24, 11:14 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
On which days in 2026 will Donald Trump be alive?
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KalshiRules
This market aims to assess the likelihood of Donald Trump, the 45th President of the United States, being alive at the close of 31 December 2026.
- The health and longevity of former presidents are subjects of significant public interest, particularly given their roles in shaping national and global policy.
- Factors for consideration in this market include publicly known details about Trump's health, lifestyle habits, age-related risks, and any statistical life expectancy data pertinent to his demographic profile.
- Participants are urged to approach their analysis and contributions with the utmost respect and decorum.
- Speculative discussions should rely on information that is publicly accessible and should be framed respectfully, avoiding invasive or derogatory commentary.
- The resolution of this market will hinge on verifiable, public evidence concerning Donald Trump's life status as of the specified date.
Open markets
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $805.6K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance-1.0pt44.1%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $290.1K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Donald Trump be alive on 31 December 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 95% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Donald Trump be alive on 31 December 2026? resolve?
- Will Donald Trump be alive on 31 December 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Donald Trump be alive on 31 December 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market aims to assess the likelihood of Donald Trump, the 45th President of the United States, being alive at the close of 31 December 2026.