Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 97.3%
Forecasters
60
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 23 hours ago
StaleFeb 7, 24, 11:14 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market aims to assess the likelihood of Donald Trump, the 45th President of the United States, being alive at the close of 31 December 2026.
- The health and longevity of former presidents are subjects of significant public interest, particularly given their roles in shaping national and global policy.
- Factors for consideration in this market include publicly known details about Trump's health, lifestyle habits, age-related risks, and any statistical life expectancy data pertinent to his demographic profile.
- Participants are urged to approach their analysis and contributions with the utmost respect and decorum.
- Speculative discussions should rely on information that is publicly accessible and should be framed respectfully, avoiding invasive or derogatory commentary.
- The resolution of this market will hinge on verifiable, public evidence concerning Donald Trump's life status as of the specified date.