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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. US Politics
  3. Will JD Vance integrate rationalist bloggers into significant D.C. influence by 2028?
Will JD Vance integrate rationalist bloggers into significant D.C. influence by 2028?

Will JD Vance integrate rationalist bloggers into significant D.C. influence by 2028?

One-OffUS PoliticsPoliticsAI1y
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Yes
Yes 13.9%
Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters

25

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 5 days ago

Stale
Nov 9, 24, 3:37 PMJan 17, 28, 6:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes14%

Rules

This market assesses the likelihood that JD Vance will play a meaningful role in helping individuals associated with rationalist blogging, 𝕏, or similar intellectual communities attain formal influence within high levels of U.S. government or policy-making circles by 2028.

Manifold Markets
  • Terms for the Market
  • Notable Integration:
  • Integration requires rationalist bloggers to gain substantial influence in official roles, formal advisory capacities, or have recognized policy impact facilitated by JD Vance’s direct involvement or endorsement.
  • Casual acknowledgments or public discussions do not meet this threshold.
  • Qualifying Political Figure:

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Rules

This market assesses the likelihood that JD Vance will play a meaningful role in helping individuals associated with rationalist blogging, 𝕏, or similar intellectual communities attain formal influence within high levels of U.S. government or policy-making circles by 2028.

Manifold Markets
  • Terms for the Market
  • Notable Integration:
  • Integration requires rationalist bloggers to gain substantial influence in official roles, formal advisory capacities, or have recognized policy impact facilitated by JD Vance’s direct involvement or endorsement.
  • Casual acknowledgments or public discussions do not meet this threshold.
  • Qualifying Political Figure: