Will JD Vance integrate rationalist bloggers into significant D.C. influence by 2028?
7.4 pts (24h)One-OffUS PoliticsPoliticsAI1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 68.7%-7.4ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
25
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-7.4 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Nov 9, 24, 3:37 PM UTCJan 17, 28, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
This market assesses the likelihood that JD Vance will play a meaningful role in helping individuals associated with rationalist blogging, 𝕏, or similar intellectual communities attain formal influence within high levels of U.S. government or policy-making circles by 2028.
- Terms for the Market
- Notable Integration:
- Integration requires rationalist bloggers to gain substantial influence in official roles, formal advisory capacities, or have recognized policy impact facilitated by JD Vance’s direct involvement or endorsement.
- Casual acknowledgments or public discussions do not meet this threshold.
- Qualifying Political Figure: