Will it be possible for transgender people to leave the US in 2026? (Can renew passports; Not imprisoned)
One-OffUS PoliticsCrime & JusticeSociety & Culture3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 94.2%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 14 hours ago
StaleFeb 5, 25, 4:52 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
This question was motivated by (but isn't exclusively about) passports.
- On his first day back in office, Donald Trump signed an executive order telling federal agencies, including the State Department, not to recognize identities other than male or female, including when issuing passports.
- If, in 2026, there is a two week period where at least a dozen transgender citizens CANNOT(!) acquire/renew passports, this resolves NO.
- If a motivated trans person (who is willing to check whatever box will get them out of the country on a government form) can basically always get a passport and use it to leave the country, this resolves YES.
- If being transgender starts to be criminalized such that at least a dozen people are imprisoned (for at least two weeks) because of their gender identity, for taking hormones, or for other medical care, this resolves NO.
- If they deliberately get arrested, that doesn't count.
