Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92.6%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJul 3, 24, 1:25 AM UTCSep 2, 40, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Israel survive the date Khamenei predicted for its destruction?
Manifold MarketsAs predicted by AI 2027, will AI surpass all living humans in coding ability by January 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Destiny surpass Hasan's number of YouTube subscribers within 2 years 8 months as predicted by Socialblade?
Manifold MarketsWill (global average) sea level rise by more than 1.1 meters (as predicted by the IPCC) by 2100 ?
Manifold MarketsMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by which date?
PolymarketKhamenei # posts October 30 - November 6, 2026?
PolymarketRules
In 2015 Khamenei predicted the "Zionist regime" will be gone in 25 years. https://x.com/khamenei_ir/status/641520641724780544
- In 2017 Iran started a countdown clock for August 5, 2040 if I have the numbers right: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-al-quds-day-protest-clock-president-hassan-rouhani-a7806056.html
- In case of a one-state solution, I would consider it to resolve YES, if that state doesn't have special provisions for Jewish people being able to immigrate (in which case I think it would no longer be Zionist).
- Any two-state solution would be NO.
- I consider the confederation model (https://www.2s1h.org/en) that still has a Jewish right of return for the Israel side to still be close enough to a two-state solution and would resolve NO.
- If the Iran regime moves the countdown clock further into the future, I would consider that to resolve NO (if I have to fix the date because I mis-added, or the 2017 article was wrong, that's fine though).
