As predicted by AI 2027, will AI surpass all living humans in coding ability by January 2027?
AIOne-Off2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88.1%
Forecasters
59
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleApr 8, 25, 5:21 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Destiny surpass Hasan's number of YouTube subscribers within 2 years 8 months as predicted by Socialblade?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel be destroyed before 2040, as predicted by Khamenei?
Manifold MarketsWill (global average) sea level rise by more than 1.1 meters (as predicted by the IPCC) by 2100 ?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia cede territory to China by 2040 as predicted by Sarah Paine?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRules
According to the AI Futures Project "AI 2027", AI coding will surpass any living person's coding abilities in January 2027.
- This will resolve as Yes on Feb 1 2027 if there are no demonstrable economically valuable coding tasks that a person can do that an AI cannot do.
- It will resolve as No if there are any economically valuable tasks that a human can do that AI cannot do.
- Evidence of an Economically Valuable Coding Task Will Include:
- - Any legitimate benchmark that is not saturated by AI, and contains any task a human can complete independently (such as SWEBench).
- - Any repeatable demonstration of such task