Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 90.3%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMay 18, 26, 9:55 AM UTCMay 15, 27, 7:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which countries will officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2027?
KalshiWhich country will win the Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first Eurovision Song Contest Asia show happen?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens 2026
Manifold MarketsIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) officially announces that Israel is banned or suspended from participating in the Eurovision Song Contest prior to the commencement of the 2027 Grand Final.
- It resolves to NO if Israel remains eligible to compete in the 2027 contest or if no such ban/suspension is announced before the final event.
- The primary source of resolution will be official statements released by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) or the official Eurovision Song Contest website.
- If the EBU issues a statement regarding Israel's participation status, that determination will be final.
- The Eurovision Song Contest has faced significant political pressure regarding participant eligibility in recent years.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26.9M
- 24h Vol
- $363.4K
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-19.5pt49%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+6.1pt59.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8.1M
- 24h Vol
- $178.2K
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Israel be banned before Eurovision Song Contest 2027 happens??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Israel be banned before Eurovision Song Contest 2027 happens? resolve?
- Will Israel be banned before Eurovision Song Contest 2027 happens? is scheduled to resolve on May 15, 2027.
- How is Will Israel be banned before Eurovision Song Contest 2027 happens? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria