Will inflation in the US rise above 10% at some point during the second Trump presidency?

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will inflation in the US rise above 10% at some point during the second Trump presidency??

Manifold Markets prices No at 94% as of October 16, 2026.

When does Will inflation in the US rise above 10% at some point during the second Trump presidency? resolve?

Will inflation in the US rise above 10% at some point during the second Trump presidency? is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2029.

How is Will inflation in the US rise above 10% at some point during the second Trump presidency? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution will be based on CPI-U, specifically the unadjusted percent change of 'All items' in the Bureau of Labor Statistics news releases for each individual rolling 12 month period beginning from the 12 months ended February 2025.

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POLYMARKET

Fed Decision in October?

• No change+12.0pt86.1%
• 25 bps increase-11.0pt13.9%
• 25 bps decrease0%

+2 more outcomes

Total Vol

$42.7M

24h Vol

$2.2M

KALSHI

US gas prices this week

• Above 4.280099%
• Above 4.260099.5%
• Above 4.160099.5%

POLYMARKET

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

• Yes-4.0pt77.2%
• No+4.0pt22.8%

Total Vol

$842.8K

24h Vol

$61.7K

KALSHI

Inflation in December 2026 (CPI YoY)

• Above 3.2%+3.0pt95.5%
• Above 3.3%+8.0pt94%
• Above 3.1%+2.0pt

KALSHI

Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY)

• Above 3.1%98.5%
• Above 3.0%98.5%
• Above 3.2%96.5%

POLYMARKET

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

• 2 (50 bps)+2.0pt66%
• 1 (25 bps)+4.5pt21.4%
• 3 (75 bps)-6.4pt11.7%

+3 more outcomes

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