Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 81.6%
Forecasters
30
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJan 16, 24, 9:05 PM UTCDec 17, 00, 9:40 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will humanity go extinct before 2030?
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FutuurExtinct mammoth hybrids to be born alive by the end of 2027?
FutuurWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRules
In 2020, Toby Ord estimates existential risk in the next century at "1 in 6" in his book The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity.
- He also estimated a "1 in 10" risk of extinction by unaligned AI within the next century.
Open markets
Science
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.3pt4%
- April 300%
- June 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $67.6M
- 24h Vol
- $524.6K
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202922%
- Before 2028+2.0pt15%
- Before 2027+0.1pt6%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.8M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- No+2.0pt82%
- Yes-2.0pt18%
- Total Vol
- $22K
- 24h Vol
- $4.9K
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2030+8.9pt80%
- Before 203580%
- Before 2029+0.1pt30%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $296.9K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0-4.0pt35%
- Above 1-2.0pt13%
- Above 2-6.0pt6%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+1.0pt51%
- Before 203247%
- Before 203030%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $137.1K
- 24h Vol
- $2.4K
- When will nuclear fusion be achieved?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
- Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Humans go extinct by 2200??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 82% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does Will Humans go extinct by 2200? resolve?
- Will Humans go extinct by 2200? is scheduled to resolve on December 17, 2200.
- How is Will Humans go extinct by 2200? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: In 2020, Toby Ord estimates existential risk in the next century at "1 in 6" in his book The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity.