Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 79.3%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleApr 14, 26, 6:13 PM UTCApr 14, 00, 6:08 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
In my LessWrong essay "Nectome: All That I Know", I make the claim: "Most cryonics clients wait over a day between legal death and being cryopreserved." This is hard to check, but might be possible to verify at some point in the future.
- This market will resolve YES if there is strong evidence that a majority of people who were cryopreserved before 2026 spent at least 24 hours after legal death but before having their remains vitrified at cryogenic temperatures.
- It will resolve NO if there is strong evidence that a majority were cryopreserved with less than a day's wait time.
- I won't resolve until there is clear, unambiguous evidence about how it should resolve.
- I also won't bet.
Open markets
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑500+0.1pt100%
- ↑1k+0.1pt100%
- ↑2k+0.2pt100%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.9M
- 24h Vol
- $32.2K
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No97%
- Yes3%
- Total Vol
- $18.2M
- 24h Vol
- $24.8K
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.5pt93.1%
- Yes+0.5pt6.9%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $9.4K
KALSHIWhich countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?
- Kenya14%
- India+2.0pt8%
- Ethiopia-2.0pt5%
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.9K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000+2.0pt60%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- $2K
KALSHIWill 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- On Nov 16, 2026-3.0pt94%
- On Nov 22, 202769%
- On Dec 14, 2026-36.0pt32%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $52.1K
- Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
- When will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360 Psilocybin?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- Pandemic in 2026?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law?
- FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Did most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 79% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does Did most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation? resolve?
- Did most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation? is scheduled to resolve on April 14, 3000.
- How is Did most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: In my LessWrong essay "Nectome: All That I Know", I make the claim: "Most cryonics clients wait over a day between legal death and being cryopreserved." This is hard to check, but might be possible to verify at some point in the future.