Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (24.40000000000001%)
Resolved: Aug 9, 2026, 6:58 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastYes 75.6%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 days ago
StaleAug 3, 26, 1:59 PMAug 7, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
75.6%
24.4%
Rules
Following the August 1 incident at Tolú Airport (where President Gustavo Petro remained inside the presidential aircraft after returning from Cuba and left without landing) and the upcoming presidential transition on August 7, there is speculation surrounding his presence in the country.
- Resolution Criteria:
- *YES:** This market resolves to YES if Gustavo Petro is physically outside the national territory of Colombia at any point on August 7, 2026 (00:00 to 23:59 COT), as confirmed by major news outlets or official government communications.
- *NO:** This market resolves to NO if Gustavo Petro remains inside Colombian territory for the entire duration of August 7, 2026.
- *Verification Sources:** Major reputable news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, El Tiempo) or official state press releases.
- If no credible evidence shows he left the country on that date, the market will resolve to *NO**.
