Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any strain of influenza before 2028?
Health & MedicineOne-Off
Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (93.8%)
Resolved: Oct 7, 2026, 7:39 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Yes
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 8, 2026, 9:36 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes93.8%
No6.200000000000003%
Won
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against colorectal adenocarcinoma before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against melanoma before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any type of herpes simplex infection before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against non-small-cell lung carcinoma before 2028?
Manifold MarketsAny vaccine against Alzheimer's disease to be safe and effective by the end of 2027?
FutuurWill the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)?
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if the FDA grants full approval for the commercial sale of any mRNA vaccine against any strain of influenza in the United States before January 1, 2028.
- This does not include emergency use authorization or other forms of limited authorization.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
