Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 54%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Sep 3, 26, 4:20 PM UTCFeb 1, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will I make USAJMO in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the USAJMO Cutoff for 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiAll Millennium Prize Problems solved before May 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketRules
He got 8 on AIME II last year.
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+0.9pt86%
- Before 2030-3.0pt82%
- Before 2029-12.9pt48%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $268.6K
- 24h Vol
- $81.3K
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027-0.3pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 314%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+13.0pt58%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $127.5K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+4.0pt49%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $3.4K
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?
- Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Ethan Sun make USAJMO in 2027?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 54% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Ethan Sun make USAJMO in 2027 resolve?
- Will Ethan Sun make USAJMO in 2027 is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2027.
- How is Will Ethan Sun make USAJMO in 2027 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: He got 8 on AIME II last year.