Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
One-OffAI1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 87.5%
Forecasters
94
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMay 14, 23, 7:54 AM UTCJan 2, 28, 12:30 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Phrasing here matters, I will count "P(doom)" in text, and also things like "probability of doom", "P doom", "chance we all die" and other similar-enough things in spoken recorded interviews / podcast appearances /etc. as well as in text.
- I will exercise personal judgement for borderline cases.
- P(doom|something else) is not P(doom).
- He must explicitly specify a number that is less than 97 or that his number is less than 97 for this market to resolve YES.
Open markets
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+3 more outcomes
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- 2028+10.0pt60%
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+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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+5 more outcomes
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- 24h Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028? resolve?
- Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2028.
- How is Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Phrasing here matters, I will count "P(doom)" in text, and also things like "probability of doom", "P doom", "chance we all die" and other similar-enough things in spoken recorded interviews / podcast appearances /etc. as well as in text.