Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
One-OffAI1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 87.5%
No 87.5%Forecasters
94
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 23 minutes ago
May 14, 23, 7:54 AM UTCJan 2, 28, 12:30 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI publicly claim a solution to a SECOND Millennium Prize Problem by November 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Lionel Messi publicly claim Lamine Yamal is his son by end of Dec 31, 2026? (jokes count)
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRules
Phrasing here matters, I will count "P(doom)" in text, and also things like "probability of doom", "P doom", "chance we all die" and other similar-enough things in spoken recorded interviews / podcast appearances /etc. as well as in text.
- I will exercise personal judgement for borderline cases.
- P(doom|something else) is not P(doom).
- He must explicitly specify a number that is less than 97 or that his number is less than 97 for this market to resolve YES.
