Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?
One-OffAI13y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 75.8%
No 75.8%Forecasters
67
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleFeb 13, 24, 4:54 PM UTCJan 1, 40, 12:30 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Phrasing here matters, I will count "P(doom)" in text, and also things like "probability of doom", "P doom", "chance we all die" and other similar-enough things in spoken recorded interviews / podcast appearances /etc. as well as in text.
- I will exercise personal judgement for borderline cases.
- P(doom|something else) is not P(doom).
- He must explicitly specify a number that is less than 50 or that his number is less than 50 for this market to resolve YES.
- Same as this market, but 50% and 2040
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Tripping/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-publicly-cla)
