Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027?
One-OffAI3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.1%
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13
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJul 15, 25, 11:27 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
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In a July 2025 post titled 'Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically', Gary Marcus wrote:
- My p(doom) is still lower than most industry people’s.
- I am at maybe 3% now, much higher than a month ago
- This question will concern any future updates of a similar kind that Gary Marcus may publicly make.
- If he suggests in public that his p(doom) has risen further to some figure at or above 10% before 2027, this market will resolve YES.
- Otherwise the market will resolve NO.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 86% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027? resolve?
- Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: In a July 2025 post titled 'Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically', Gary Marcus wrote: