Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBacklash to Generative AI and radical deregulation will escalate. 96.2%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
48
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleDec 21, 25, 4:07 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027?
Manifold MarketsGary Marcus 2029 AI predications
Manifold MarketsWhich "AI 2027" predictions will be right by Late 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill "2024 in AI predictions" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
Related to this blog post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/six-or-seven-predictions-for-ai-2026
- Resolution criteria:
- If Marcus gives a followup on his predictions, it will resolve to his recap of whether he was right in the blog post.
- If there is no followup blog post, I will ask the #1 AI model on the LMArena whether these were fulfilled, and it will resolve to that.
- If AI chatbots are illegal, non-functional, or otherwise not accessible in the US at EOY 2026, resolves to a poll.
- Will also resolve to a poll if LMArena shuts down.