Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 18, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastYes 15.8%
Forecasters
34
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 days ago
StaleMay 4, 24, 4:34 PMJan 1, 29, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes16%
Volume trend
$250Jul 172d of dataJul 18
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