Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
trump wins & china doesn't invade taiwan 71.7%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
57
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-3.4 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleFeb 12, 24, 10:59 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.3%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
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PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Donald Trump win 2024? x Will China Invade Taiwan before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices trump wins & china doesn't invade taiwan at 72% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Donald Trump win 2024? x Will China Invade Taiwan before 2030? resolve?
- Will Donald Trump win 2024? x Will China Invade Taiwan before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.