Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 91.2%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleAug 13, 26, 11:51 PM UTCJan 28, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Donald Trump's speech at the UN General Assembly in September 2026 last longer than 45 minutes?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Donald Trump lives to have a longer lifespan than John Quincy Adams.
- Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
- John Quincy Adams' Lifespan: 29,446 days (born July 11, 1767; died February 23, 1848), which is exactly 80 years and 227 days.
- Donald Trump's Lifespan: Born on June 14, 1946, Trump will have lived 29,447 days—officially surpassing Adams—if he is alive on January 27, 2027.
- Resolution Rule: If Donald Trump is confirmed alive at any point on January 27, 2027 (in his local time zone), this market resolves to YES.
Open markets
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+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
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+16 more outcomes
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- Next French Presidential Election
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- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
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- NJ-07 House winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Donald Trump have a longer lifespan than John Quincy Adams??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Donald Trump have a longer lifespan than John Quincy Adams? resolve?
- Will Donald Trump have a longer lifespan than John Quincy Adams? is scheduled to resolve on January 28, 2027.
- How is Will Donald Trump have a longer lifespan than John Quincy Adams? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria