Current community forecast
No 67.3%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleFeb 11, 24, 12:44 PM UTCDec 31, 35, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Russia surpass Japan in GDP per capita (PPP) by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Poland surpass the UK in GDP per capita by PPP prior to 2035?
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Manifold MarketsChina GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
PolymarketChina’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiChina unemployment rate in August
KalshiRules
Based on the World Bank data:
- https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=CN-JP&start=1960&view=chart
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629.4K
- 24h Vol
- $36K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.5K
- 24h Vol
- $12.5K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No81%
- Yes-6.0pt19%
- Total Vol
- $360.5K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Total Vol
- $711.9K
- 24h Vol
- $8K
- Recession this year?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China's GDP per capita surpass Japan's by the end of 2035??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 67% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will China's GDP per capita surpass Japan's by the end of 2035? resolve?
- Will China's GDP per capita surpass Japan's by the end of 2035? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2035.
- How is Will China's GDP per capita surpass Japan's by the end of 2035? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Based on the World Bank data: