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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Regulation
  3. Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X?
Manifold Markets

Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X?

RegulationOne-OffHealth & MedicineChina4y
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
2026 33%
Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters

2

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Stale
Jun 13, 26, 11:07 PMDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

202633%

Rules

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This is an independent multiple-choice market.
  • Each year will resolve independently as YES or NO based on whether China registers more Phase 3 clinical trials than the United States during that calendar year.
  • Primary Source of Truth: The database compiled by the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP), specifically accessed via the WHO Global Observatory on Health Research and Development dashboard for "Number of clinical trial registrations by year, location, disease and phase of development".
  • Resolution Rules:
  • YES: If the final count of Phase 3 clinical trial registrations for China (as the trial location) is strictly greater than the count for the United States (as the trial location) for the given calendar year.

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Rules

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This is an independent multiple-choice market.
  • Each year will resolve independently as YES or NO based on whether China registers more Phase 3 clinical trials than the United States during that calendar year.
  • Primary Source of Truth: The database compiled by the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP), specifically accessed via the WHO Global Observatory on Health Research and Development dashboard for "Number of clinical trial registrations by year, location, disease and phase of development".
  • Resolution Rules:
  • YES: If the final count of Phase 3 clinical trial registrations for China (as the trial location) is strictly greater than the count for the United States (as the trial location) for the given calendar year.