Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X?
One-OffHealth & MedicineChina4yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2030 69.2%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJun 13, 26, 11:07 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This is an independent multiple-choice market.
- Each year will resolve independently as YES or NO based on whether China registers more Phase 3 clinical trials than the United States during that calendar year.
- Primary Source of Truth: The database compiled by the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP), specifically accessed via the WHO Global Observatory on Health Research and Development dashboard for "Number of clinical trial registrations by year, location, disease and phase of development".
- Resolution Rules:
- YES: If the final count of Phase 3 clinical trial registrations for China (as the trial location) is strictly greater than the count for the United States (as the trial location) for the given calendar year.
Open markets
Health & Medicine
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- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Total Vol
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- Above 300099%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X??
- Manifold Markets prices 2030 at 69% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X? resolve?
- Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will China have more phase 3 drug trials than the United States in year X? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria