Will a majority government owned company introduce a new GLP-1 drug before 2040?
RegulationOne-OffChinaEurope13yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 84.1%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 39 minutes ago
Jan 25, 25, 9:23 PM UTCDec 31, 39, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Background GLP-1 (Glucagon-like peptide-1) drugs are currently one of the fastest-growing segments in the pharmaceutical industry, primarily used for treating type 2 diabetes and obesity.
- The market is dominated by private companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.
- Many sources predict a very significant impact of cost of those drugs on public health systems, which could potentially be solved by a Manhattan Project-like development effort to create a government-owned alternative.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if:
- A company that is >50% owned by any national government receives regulatory approval for a new GLP-1 drug in at least two major markets (US, EU, UK, Japan, China) before January 1, 2040
- The drug must be a novel GLP-1 receptor agonist, not a generic version or biosimilar of an existing drug
