Will "Chicken-Free Egg Whites" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffScience1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85.1%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleApr 11, 26, 11:36 PM UTCFeb 1, 28, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will "Help me launch Obsolete: a book aimed at buil..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "If Mythos actually made Anthropic employees 4..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Dario probably doesn't believe in superintell..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRules
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Chicken-Free Egg Whites is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Open markets
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $66.7M
- 24h Vol
- $99K
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2030+9.0pt85%
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2029+29.1pt61%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202920%
- Before 202813%
- Before 20275%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
- 24h Vol
- $17.2K
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1+4.5pt75.3%
- 221.8%
- 32%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
- before October+63.0pt97%
+3 more outcomes
- How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will "Chicken-Free Egg Whites" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 85% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will "Chicken-Free Egg Whites" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? resolve?
- Will "Chicken-Free Egg Whites" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2028.
- How is Will "Chicken-Free Egg Whites" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.