Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 86.1%
Forecasters
42
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 49 minutes ago
LaggingDec 6, 25, 11:10 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
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KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves to this site: AI Chatbot Market Share Worldwide | Statcounter Global Stats
- ChatGPT has steadily held 80% market share according to that site.
- Update 2026-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market resolves YES if ChatGPT falls below 75% market share at any point during 2026 (not just at year-end), as measured on the linked Statcounter site for all platforms worldwide.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will chatGPT fall below 75% of AI Chatbot market share in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 86% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will chatGPT fall below 75% of AI Chatbot market share in 2026? resolve?
- Will chatGPT fall below 75% of AI Chatbot market share in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will chatGPT fall below 75% of AI Chatbot market share in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to this site: AI Chatbot Market Share Worldwide | Statcounter Global Stats