Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 84.1%
Forecasters
66
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleDec 6, 25, 11:10 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves to this site: AI Chatbot Market Share Worldwide | Statcounter Global Stats
- ChatGPT has steadily held 80% market share according to that site.
- Update 2026-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market resolves YES if ChatGPT falls below 75% market share at any point during 2026 (not just at year-end), as measured on the linked Statcounter site for all platforms worldwide.
- Update 2026-10-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve using the monthly time series from the linked Statcounter site.
