Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 99%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleSep 24, 24, 8:38 PM UTCOct 2, 26, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Caroline Ellison resume posting on Tumblr when she is released from prison?
Manifold MarketsWill Caroline Ellison be arrested before 2028?
Manifold MarketsCaroline Ellison next job
Manifold MarketsWill South Korean President Lee Jae-myung serve their full term?
KalshiTrump to serve his full term?
FutuurZhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
PolymarketRules
Any sort of prison facility counts, including detention centers and psychiatric facilities.
- House arrest, electronic confinement at a private home, would not.
- Let me know if you want me to outline edge cases before you trade.
- I might trade in this market, will probably be low-stakes.
Open markets
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+2.5pt65%
- Yes-2.5pt35%
- Total Vol
- $404K
- 24h Vol
- $31.8K
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 2026+0.1pt5%
- Total Vol
- $578.1K
- 24h Vol
- $16K
POLYMARKETNothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Yes+3.0pt84.2%
- No-3.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $785.6K
- 24h Vol
- $9.4K
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $11.4M
- 24h Vol
- $6.9K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 307%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill Trump be impeached and removed from office?
- No86%
- Yes-3.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $670.9K
- 24h Vol
- $4.2K
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
- What will Brett Kavanaugh say during his Notre Dame Lecture?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Maduro Prison Time?
- Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
- Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Andrew Tate released from custody by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Caroline Ellison serve the full 24 months in prison??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Caroline Ellison serve the full 24 months in prison? resolve?
- Will Caroline Ellison serve the full 24 months in prison? is scheduled to resolve on October 2, 2026.
- How is Will Caroline Ellison serve the full 24 months in prison? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Any sort of prison facility counts, including detention centers and psychiatric facilities.