Will California repeal Prop. 13 by 2030? (2% adjustment cap)
InflationOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:03 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 80.4%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJul 31, 23, 5:39 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Prop. 13 was a 1978 California ballot proposition which, among other things, passed a constitutional amendment that capped property taxes on all property at 1% of their purchase price, with a maximum annual inflation adjustment of 2%, regardless of market price.
- This has led to property taxes varying drastically between neighboring houses; houses which have been held for the longest have the lowest property taxes.
- While in the past there have been attempts to pull back some parts of Prop. 13, such as a US supreme court case, and many ballot measures, none have succeeded.
- However, a growing contingent of the YIMBY movement sees Prop. 13 as entrenching NIMBY and SFH interests.
- Will Prop. 13's 2% yearly adjustment cap be repealed by 2030 for all buildings?
- @/xyz/will-california-repeal-prop-13-2-ca <- this market
