Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.6%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleDec 18, 25, 4:41 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
PolymarketNext Prime Minister of Romania?
PolymarketWill Angela Rayner be Prime Minister of the UK before December?
Manifold MarketsParty of Next Prime Minister of Romania?
PolymarketWill any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?
Manifold MarketsAndy Burnham announces departure as Prime Minister?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Australia get a new Prime Minister in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Australia get a new Prime Minister in 2026? resolve?
- Will Australia get a new Prime Minister in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.