This market resolved: Yes (4.8%)
Resolved: Oct 12, 2026, 2:17 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 19, 2026, 12:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Trends
Lost
Won
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
CPI in October
KalshiCPI YoY in November
KalshiUS economic state at the end of 2026?
PolymarketWill the real US GDP grow more than 5% per year in any year before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill 2025 be referred to as the start of the second Great Depression?
Manifold MarketsWill the average US inflation between 2024–2034 be more than 2.21%?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for August 2026 reports that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by at least 150,000 jobs.
- Use the headline establishment-survey change in total nonfarm payroll employment, seasonally adjusted.
- A value of +150,000 or higher resolves YES.
- A value of +149,000 or lower resolves NO.
- Negative values resolve NO.
- Do not use the unemployment rate, household-survey employment, labor-force participation, ADP, initial claims, JOLTS, private-payrolls-only, sector payrolls, state payrolls, forecast consensus, or later revisions unless BLS corrects the initial August 2026 release before resolution.