Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 95.1%
Forecasters
172
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingFeb 28, 23, 3:09 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 9:01 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRules
Millenium Problems
- This market will be resolved to:
- YES -- if by the 1st of January, 2030 a proof recognized by the Clay Mathematics Institute is published
- NO -- otherwise
