Will anti-AI movement cause all AI technology infrastructures and chatbots to abolish and defunct before 2050?
GeopoliticsAIOne-Off
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89%
Forecasters
0
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 37 minutes ago
Nov 1, 26, 8:08 AM UTCDec 31, 49, 11:00 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2050, 00:00 UTC, all major generative AI chatbots, models, and commercial/public AI computing infrastructures are permanently abolished, shut down, and defunct worldwide as a direct result of political, legal, activist, or regulatory anti-AI movements.
- This market resolves to NO if on January 1, 2050, AI technology infrastructure and commercial or open-source chatbots remain operational, deployed, or under active public/commercial development, or if their cessation was caused primarily by unrelated catastrophic events (such as total societal collapse, global nuclear war, or non-anthropogenic extinction events) rather than an intentional anti-AI movement/ban.
- The threshold is high: the prompt specifies "all AI technology infrastructures and chatbots to abolish and defunct." Partial regulation, regional bans (e.g., within specific jurisdictions), or pauses on frontier training do not suffice for a YES resolution if major AI systems and infrastructure continue operating elsewhere.
- Resolution will be determined by consensus reporting across credible global news and scientific institutions (such as Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, or Nature).
- Public and philosophical pushback against artificial intelligence—often grouped under "neo-Luddism," the AI safety/alignment movement, creative copyright protests, or environmental backlash over data center energy and water consumption—has grown as models proliferate.
