Will another UN member state leader holds any other UN state leader or former leader in captivity in 2026?
US PoliticsOne-OffLatin America2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 76.7%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJan 5, 26, 2:05 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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- Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves based on pairwise combinations of captors and captives:
- If the same leader holds multiple different leaders captive, each new pairing counts as a separate instance
- If a successor to a previously captured leader is held (and sufficiently well-established), that counts as a new instance
- Holding former leaders (e.g., former U.S. presidents) also counts
- Capturing multiple subordinates or acting officials under one regime does not clearly satisfy the criteria
