Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 96.5%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJan 21, 25, 10:07 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Iceland is a member of the European Economic Area (EEA), which allows for the free movement of goods, services, and people between Iceland and the European Union (EU).
- However, Iceland is not a member of the EU itself.
- Here are some key points about Iceland's relationship with the EU:
- * Iceland is part of the Schengen Area, allowing for passport-free travel between Iceland and other Schengen countries.
- * Iceland is a member of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), which allows for the free movement of goods with EU member states.
- * Iceland has a bilateral agreement with the EU, the European Economic Area Agreement (EEA Agreement), which grants Iceland access to the EU's single market.
Open markets
EuropePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.6pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.8pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.9M
- 24h Vol
- $661.5K
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.9pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- No-4.0pt83.2%
- Yes+4.0pt16.8%
- Total Vol
- $952.6K
- 24h Vol
- $150.6K
POLYMARKETMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
- AfD+2.0pt78.4%
- SPD-1.0pt21.6%
- CDU0%
+5 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Sweden
- Magdalena Andersson+1.0pt77.5%
- Ulf Kristersson-2.0pt20.6%
- Jimmie Åkesson-0.1pt1%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETECB Interest Rates: September 2026
- 25 bps increase-0.1pt100%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
- 25 bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Berlin State Election Winner
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Vote Share?
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
- AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Iceland remain a Non-EU member state by the year 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Iceland remain a Non-EU member state by the year 2027? resolve?
- Will Iceland remain a Non-EU member state by the year 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Iceland remain a Non-EU member state by the year 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Iceland is a member of the European Economic Area (EEA), which allows for the free movement of goods, services, and people between Iceland and the European Union (EU).