Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (98.9%)
Resolved: Aug 15, 2026, 3:23 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastYes 98.9%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 days ago
StaleAug 5, 25, 9:42 PMAug 15, 26, 3:22 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes98.9%
No1.099999999999994%
98.9%
1.1%
Rules
Online and participation without flag counts
- https://manifold.markets/OmriJerbi/will-israel-participate-in-ioi-2026?r=UmF6RHZvcmE
Open markets
Middle East
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-1.8pt66%
- October 31-9.0pt41%
- September 30-3.0pt26%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $18M
- 24h Vol
- $401K
POLYMARKETUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- December 31-3.0pt8%
- November 30-2.0pt6%
- October 31-1.0pt4%
+6 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Before Jul 1, 2027+2.0pt47%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-2.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2027-4.0pt24%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-4.0pt36.7%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-1.0pt22.4%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt11.2%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- August 22+1.1pt98%
- August 2595%
- August 31-0.5pt86%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by which date?
- August 310%
- August 150%
- Total Vol
- $22.7M
- 24h Vol
- $118.3K
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Al-Riyadh vs Al Nassr
- Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by which date?
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will Iran target a Arab country on?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an Israeli participate in IOI 2026?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 99% as of August 16, 2026.
- When does Will an Israeli participate in IOI 2026 resolve?
- Will an Israeli participate in IOI 2026 is scheduled to resolve on August 15, 2026.
- How is Will an Israeli participate in IOI 2026 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Online and participation without flag counts