Will Abdul El-Sayed run 3 to 6 points behind Jocelyn Benson?
PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics2026 US MidtermsElection3hManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 51%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Nov 2, 26, 10:04 AM UTCNov 4, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Abdul El-Sayed runs behind Jocelyn Benson by which date?
PolymarketAbdul El-Sayed runs behind Jocelyn Benson by which date?
Manifold MarketsWill Jocelyn Benson become the 50th governor of the state of Michigan ?
Manifold MarketsWill Jocelyn Benson win the Michigan general election for Governor in 2026?
ForecastExWill Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan general election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExWill Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?
Manifold MarketsRules
The 2026 Michigan general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- Abdul El-Sayed is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Michigan, and Jocelyn Benson is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Michigan.
- This market will resolve based on how many percentage points Abdul El-Sayed’s vote share in the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate election falls below Jocelyn Benson’s vote share in the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election.
- If El-Sayed’s vote share exceeds Benson’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”.
- Each candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding.
- For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing the named candidate and at least one other candidate.
