Will a video game involving LLM dialogue be a top 10 best-selling game of all time, by EOY 2028?
AIOne-OffEntertainment2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87%
Forecasters
35
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleApr 6, 24, 4:27 AM UTCJan 1, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a video game released after 2023 be a top 10 best-selling game of all time, by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a video game released after 2023 be a top 10 best-selling game of all time, by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a movie that has at least some AI-generated dialogue win an Oscar by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsIFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of 2026?
KalshiWho will be the top-selling artist by total auction sales in 2026?
PolymarketTop U.S. Selling Vinyl Album: 2026
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if some video-game that makes use of LLM dialogue gets into the top 10 in the List of best-selling video games, according to Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_games.
- Must be top 10 at any time before market close (EOY 2028).
- See also: @/Bayesian/will-a-video-game-released-after-20
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a video game involving LLM dialogue be a top 10 best-selling game of all time, by EOY 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a video game involving LLM dialogue be a top 10 best-selling game of all time, by EOY 2028? resolve?
- Will a video game involving LLM dialogue be a top 10 best-selling game of all time, by EOY 2028? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029.
- How is Will a video game involving LLM dialogue be a top 10 best-selling game of all time, by EOY 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if some video-game that makes use of LLM dialogue gets into the top 10 in the List of best-selling video games, according to Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_games.