Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsCrime & Justice2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOther US citizen 37.8%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
44
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJul 5, 24, 3:26 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
The recent Supreme Court ruling (Trump v United States - wiki, pdf) is being criticized for allowing absolute and presumptive immunity for various acts involving core powers.
- One of the recurring hypotheticals is (paraphrased) "ordering Seal Team Six to assassinate a the named outcome".
- Will a US president order the assassination of any of the above people by 2029?
- Resolves YES to any assassinations that have been ordered by the president by the end of 2028 as they are ordered (assassinations that are publicly ordered but not carried out prior to 2028 still count).
- Resolves NO to any assassinations that happen, but are not claimed responsibility by the president and are attributed to independent, presidentially-unrelated assassins prior to the end of 2028.
- Resolves NO on December 31st of 2028 for any assassinations that have not yet been ordered.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices Other US citizen at 38% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029? resolve?
- Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029.
- How is Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The recent Supreme Court ruling (Trump v United States - wiki, pdf) is being criticized for allowing absolute and presumptive immunity for various acts involving core powers.