Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2040?
GeopoliticsOne-Off14y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 82.7%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJan 28, 24, 3:03 AM UTCJan 1, 41, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Start counting from market creation (Jan 27,2024).
- Including tests.
- Only count deaths directly related to the explosion within 10 days of the explosion.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2040??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 83% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2040? resolve?
- Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2040? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2041.
- How is Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2040? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Start counting from market creation (Jan 27,2024).