Will a Muslim Majority Country Lose Its Majority Before 2040?
Middle EastOne-OffReligionSociety & CultureGeopolitics13yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 63%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMay 3, 26, 11:30 AM UTCDec 31, 39, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Criterion: If a country where the population is >50.0% Muslim as of May 03, 2026 is less than or equal to 50.0% Muslim before 2040, the market resolves YES.
- Otherwise, it resolves NO.
- Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_by_country#Countries Eligible Countries: Here are the countries that currently have a Muslim majority and to which the criterion applies: Maldives, Mauritania, Iran, Somalia, Afghanistan, Djibouti, Western Sahara, Algeria, Morocco, Comoros, Niger, Tajikistan, Tunisia, Palestine, Azerbaijan, Jordan, Senegal, Yemen, Libya, Mayotte, Pakistan, Gambia, Mali, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Iraq, Turkmenistan, Kosovo, Turkey, Bangladesh, Egypt, Guinea, Uzbekistan, Indonesia, Syria, Oman, Brunei, Kyrgyzstan, Sierra Leone, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Lebanon, Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Burkina Faso, Malaysia, Chad, Eritrea, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina.
