Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:52 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the first Chinese crewed mission to land on the Moon include a woman?
When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess?
In 2030, will there be more than 10 $5bn companies that are some form of large language model focused on a specific task. ie not Microsoft, not OpenAI,
Will tweaking current Large Language Models (LLMs) lead us to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026?
Rules
Will a large language model / foundational model be deployed on a space landing mission by the end of 2030? As the latency in space is significant, the LLM would need to physically be present on the spacecraft’s onboard computer.
Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:
https://api.coinrithm.com/api/prediction-markets/events/manifold/will-a-large-language-model-be-deplAI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:
https://mcp.coinrithm.com/mcp+18 more outcomes
+7 more outcomes
+9 more outcomes
+12 more outcomes
+9 more outcomes
+5 more outcomes