Current community forecast
2030 88%Leader of 7 outcomes
2030 88%Forecasters
43
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+7.8 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleAug 11, 24, 4:42 PM UTCFeb 1, 31, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a Large Language Model be deployed on a mission to land on a moon or planet by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsIn 2030, will there be more than 10 $5bn companies that are some form of large language model focused on a specific task. ie not Microsoft, not OpenAI,
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s IPO Form S-1 be public by 31 October 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich week will Anthropic's IPO prospectus (Form S-1) go public on SEC EDGAR?
Manifold MarketsRules
At the end of each year, I’ll play a game of chess against an LLM.
- Resolves YES if I lose, NO if I win, and 50% for a draw.
- On which years will I win?
- The market will now be resolved according to the outcome of this linked market which gives more details about which language model will win.
- E.g. 2026 in this market corresponds to "Any model announced before 2027" in the other market.
- More details can be found there, but in summary: I’m rated around 1900 FIDE, 2100 USCF.
