Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYES, and she will be the second Chinese citizen to walk on the Moon 35.9%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleAug 22, 25, 3:06 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This resolves on China’s first crewed mission that successfully lands taikonauts on the lunar surface (soft landing achieved; mere lunar orbit or aborts don’t count).
- Outcome is determined from official post-mission reports/broadcasts by CMSA/Xinhua/CCTV; if unavailable, reputable wire services (Reuters/AP) may be used.
- “the named outcome” if a woman is the first to step onto the lunar surface on that mission, per official timeline/coverage.
- “the named outcome” if a woman steps onto the surface after a male crewmate from the same mission has already done so.
- “the named outcome” if a woman is assigned to that mission but does not ride the lander and stays in lunar orbit.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the first Chinese crewed mission to land on the Moon include a woman??
- Manifold Markets prices YES, and she will be the second Chinese citizen to walk on the Moon at 36% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the first Chinese crewed mission to land on the Moon include a woman? resolve?
- Will the first Chinese crewed mission to land on the Moon include a woman? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will the first Chinese crewed mission to land on the Moon include a woman? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria