Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMar 1, 24, 12:27 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
i.e., has a birth certificate and/or whatever other documents identify them as a known person in a given society.
- Stillbirth/ fetal death doesn't count (live birth must occur, even if from an artificial or non-human womb).
- Resolves NO if no clone is born or none that are become citizens.