Will a gay couple give birth to an equally-genetically-related child before 2035?
One-OffHealth & MedicineScience8yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 71.3%
Forecasters
41
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleOct 23, 23, 10:05 PM UTCJan 2, 35, 7:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
Background: Several startups and research labs are currently working on gametogensis with gay couples in mind.
- Quibbles: Stillbirths or abortions don't count; the child must be viable for at least a day postpartum. "Gay couple" for the purposes of this market means two biological males or two biological females (regardless of gender identity or sexual orientation), not necessarily in a relationship with each other.
- The couple does not need to birth or carry the child to term themselves; surrogates are allowed/expected.
- See also: @/MetaculusBot/when-will-we-see-the-first-viable-h-19ca28a5b59f
