Will either of the two remaining northern white rhinos give birth naturally or by surrogate by the end of 2029?
One-OffScience3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 62.1%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleAug 3, 25, 1:08 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if either of the two remaining northern white rhinoceroses, Najin or Fatu, gives birth to a calf by December 31, 2029.
- Verification will be based on official announcements from the Ol Pejeta Conservancy or other reputable conservation organizations.
- Najin and Fatu are the last two northern white rhinos, residing at the Ol Pejeta Conservancy in Kenya.
- Both are incapable of natural reproduction: Najin has weak hind legs, and Fatu has uterine issues.
- To prevent the subspecies' extinction, scientists have developed in vitro fertilization (IVF) techniques, creating embryos from eggs harvested from Fatu and sperm from deceased males.
